A number of our clients in traditional manufacturing segments have felt the effects of excess durable goods inventories, prior rate hikes, tariffs, and economic uncertainty on their top and bottom lines.
US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excluding aircraft) are rising mildly — up 1.7% year over year — but are still 1.7% below the stimulus-fueled early 2023 level. However, one segment is standing out as a clear winner in this business cycle: the defense industry. Fueled by global conflict, uncertainty, and policy, US Defense Capital Goods New Orders are up 18.4% year over year.
Come join ITR Economics’ Deputy Chief Economist Eric Post as he shares ITR Economics’ forecast for Defense Capital Goods New Orders, more information about how the components of New Orders are trending, and how firms can best position themselves within the defense industry.
ITR Economics’ proprietary long-term business cycle theory gives us a particular advantage when it comes to analyzing the defense industry, where the pendulum toward more defense spending or against it tends to last for many years. Eric will share where ITR Economics thinks we are in the longer-term defense spending cycle right now, and what that means for firms as they think about longer term opportunities and risks.
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