Don’t Wait: The Window to Prepare for the 2030s Downturn Is Closing

As we inch closer to the 2030s, the economists here at ITR Economics are feeling an increasing sense of urgency. If you are already one of our clients, you’ve probably heard our projection of a coming depression.

We are meeting new people all the time that don’t yet know that we are expecting significant economic decline in just a few short years. Breaking that news is probably never easy, but giving business owners insight that can help them plan ahead is what keeps us going.

Do you remember the Great Recession? Maybe you were a business owner or manager at that time, and you remember the work it took to keep your head above water. Perhaps you were a younger person that saw the crisis through the lens of your family members struggling to pay their mortgage, afford the necessities of everyday life, or invest for the future.

The 2030s Downturn: Why This Time Is Different

We anticipate that the reality of the next major downturn will be more severe than the Great Recession because of how long it is likely to last. The Great Recession was largely caused by imbalances in the financial system, and those were able to be patched up in just a couple years (US GDP declined for four quarters during that 2008–2009 recession). For the 2030s, we are expecting a recession that will not be quite as deep for any one single year; however, it will be more severe overall from peak to trough, due to it lasting MUCH longer (likely 6 to 7 years, though this prolonged period of general decline will include periods of rise within it). This is due to the five depression drivers: demographics, entitlement spending, healthcare costs, inflation, and debt. These five will take more time to unwind than the extremely painful but shorter-term drivers of the Great Recession.

So, what should you do now to prepare? These next four years, it is essential that you make your business as recession resilient as possible heading into the downturn.

Three Strategic Priorities for the Next Four Years

1. Create a nimble pricing strategy that accounts for more frequent moves in price. Businesses will be contending with higher inflation for materials and labor, and profitability will be under threat despite growing top lines. A laser focus on maintaining and growing profits should be core to your pricing strategy.
2. Ensure that you have products attractively positioned for consumers feeling the price squeeze and/or focus on recession resistant markets. Though Americans are still spending at record-high levels, the distribution of that spending is more toward necessities, leaving a smaller piece of the pie for discretionary items. Consumers are more price sensitive than normal when it comes to those nice-to-have items, and some consumers are trading down from more expensive brands and products. Make sure your offerings account for this reality so that you don’t give up share by sticking with a strategy of providing high-quality outcomes for consumers only demanding mid-quality. If you don’t have the right mix, consider what investments you can make now that have a payoff period of three years at most that could help you go entrepreneurial and beat the business cycle through your own strategic efforts. Focusing on markets that are recession resistant (few markets are truly recession proof) will pay dividends during the 2030s depression.
3. Focus on growing and retaining profits during this four-year period. Your ability to buy competitor businesses, equipment/property at low prices, and pivot into new segments that will diversify your business will rely on your cash position going into the downturn. Businesses that are well-positioned to spend at low points will reap the benefits, but it takes significant forward planning and patience.

If you’re reading this as 2026 is just starting, you have time to take actions that will make a difference in your business trajectory, but your potential moves are time sensitive. Helping businesses through business cycle highs and lows is what we do and who we are at ITR Economics. Start now with these steps but reach out to us to get more specific help and advice for markets and regions.