We are not going to escape this inverse yield curve unscathed. Join us for an update of the threats, opportunities, and forecast risks for 2023 - 2025.
The US economy has not contended with an inverted yield curve since 2006. You may recall how that worked out. The Great Recession of 2008–2009 ensued.
Keep in mind that there is nothing inherently destructive about the inverted yield curve itself per se; it is that the inversion indicates that the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates too far, too fast. The yield curve inversion means there is an 88% probability of a recession hitting the US in 2023–2024.
Trends have changed since we first released our recession outlook in December 2022. Our analysis is not static. As new data pours in, we analyze the trends and judge whether they “fit” with the outlook or tell us something needs adjusting. That is what our March 23 webinar is all about. The risks to the outlook, positive and negative, are clearer than ever, and we will go through those risks and what they mean to business leaders.
Join ITR Economics CEO Brian Beaulieu and Economist Kyle Stevens as we tear the latest input apart to determine what it means for the economy and what it means for you. There is a mix of good news and bad news in the incoming data. We want you to know what those inputs are and what they mean.
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Get a custom 10-year forecast from ITR Economics to help you guide your business through the rest of the 2020s and the upcoming 2030s depression!
The same factors that were bumps during the business cycle ascent in 2021 are now helping position us for a soft landing ahead.
The forecasted length and severity of the 2024 recession is subject to certain variables tied to US monetary policy.