ITR Economics is the oldest, privately-held, continuously operating, economic research and consulting firm in the US.
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The US economy has not contended with an inverted yield curve since 2006. You may recall how that worked out. The Great Recession of 2008–2009 ensued.
Keep in mind that there is nothing inherently destructive about the inverted yield curve itself per se; it is that the inversion indicates that the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates too far, too fast. The yield curve inversion means there is an 88% probability of a recession hitting the US in 2023–2024.
Trends have changed since we first released our recession outlook in December 2022. Our analysis is not static. As new data pours in, we analyze the trends and judge whether they “fit” with the outlook or tell us something needs adjusting. That is what our March 23 webinar is all about. The risks to the outlook, positive and negative, are clearer than ever, and we will go through those risks and what they mean to business leaders.
Join ITR Economics CEO Brian Beaulieu and Economist Kyle Stevens as we tear the latest input apart to determine what it means for the economy and what it means for you. There is a mix of good news and bad news in the incoming data. We want you to know what those inputs are and what they mean.