Forecast Smarter: How Macroeconomics Can Transform Your Sales Targets

Every year, many businesses approach their forecasting the same way: they call upon sales teams or product managers to set targets based on the pipeline. While these are valuable conversations, this method of forecasting leaves out elements that are crucial for best results.

At ITR Economics, we have spent decades helping companies look beyond today’s numbers. By grounding forecasts in the broader economy and leading indicators, we help business leaders set realistic forward-looking targets. This clarity gives companies the confidence to plan for the future, allocate resources effectively, and avoid being caught off guard by economic shifts.

If you want your strategy to last, start with the economy, not just the pipeline.

The Pitfalls of Bottom-Up Forecasting

Solely relying on internal forecasts comes with some familiar challenges:

• Bias creeps in. Sales teams may lean optimistic to secure more resources, or conservative to be sure they hit their numbers.
• The focus is too short term. Pipelines and customer conversations reveal today’s conditions but rarely account for what is coming one, two, or even three years out.
• The big picture gets lost. Department-by-department forecasts often do not add up to a realistic view of the overall company.

Why the Economy Should Come First

Every business is influenced by the business cycle, whether they acknowledge it or not. Even the strongest sales team is subject to the woes of a slowing economy, and ignoring an approaching upswing means leaving opportunity on the table.

That is why we emphasize starting with the big picture. Our leading indicators and time-tested methodology help businesses anticipate shifts well before they show up in the day-to-day numbers. This gives leadership teams the ability to:

• Spot turning points before they are obvious.
• Set targets that align with reality instead of guesswork.
• Direct resources toward opportunities that match the economic environment.

Building on a Stronger Foundation

A forecast grounded in macroeconomic evidence provides stability and direction. It improves accuracy, builds trust with stakeholders, and keeps companies aligned with the realities of the market.

Bottom-up perspectives may add useful detail about internal trends, but they are most effective when used to fine-tune a forecast that is already anchored in the broader economic landscape.

Turning Forecasting Into a Competitive Advantage

Forecasting is not just about setting a budget. It is about staying ahead of the curve. By starting with the economy, you can build sales targets that are both ambitious and achievable and create a roadmap that is resilient through the ups and downs of the business cycle.

At ITR Economics, our mission is to give leaders the foresight they need to make better business decisions and outperform the competition.

👉 Ready to forecast smarter? Contact us today to see how we can help your business set sales targets that last.