Human Expertise vs. AI: Why Experienced Economists Matter in Client Analysis

The Importance of Experience in Economic Forecasting

You have undoubtably noticed how much talk there is about artificial intelligence these days. There are boasts of impressive advancements, concerns about job replacement, and uncertainty about information security. Here at ITR Economics, we recognize AI as the type of innovation that can lead to what we economists call creative destruction: a sort of economic forest fire that can change how businesses operate that comes with both pain points and new opportunities.

We find AI impressive. Certainly the efficiency gains it will bring are going to be critical moving forward, but, for reliable economic forecasting — especially the kind you need to make big decisions — there is just no substitute for real, seasoned experts. AI lacks the intuition and deeper understanding that our team of human economists brings to the table.

Why We Rely on Human Expertise: Manual Analysis and Team Credentials

For us, it is all about people. Our team of economists have spent years digging into data, studying markets, and learning from direct experience partnering with our clients. Every report we send out is built by hand, not by an algorithm. In fact, each report is backed by at least 27 years of combined experience with our unique method of analysis. Working with us means you are benefiting from decades of knowledge, insight, and hard-earned wisdom. This lets us spot patterns, anticipate changes, and provide you with recommendations that are tailored to your unique situation, rather than AI platitudes.

"One fundamental feature of our economic analysis is the way we use leading indicators. We usually compute the leading indicators’ rates-of-change rather than using their raw data directly. In this way, we uncover a more complete picture of the leading indicator evidence, which helps us to draw more useful conclusions regarding the timing and directionality of business cycle trends." - ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker

The Limits of Current AI: Why AI and LLMs Are Not Yet Sufficient

AI and large language models are great at reformatting existing information and can be of some help with brainstorming. However, machines can miss important signals or context that only our meticulously trained humans will catch. When it comes to making sense of subtle market shifts or seeing the big picture, the technology is simply not there yet. LLMs are prone to spontaneous hallucinations and are essentially a black box. Here at ITR Economics, we are constantly improving our analysis, but the core of our methodology has remained consistent for decades. While our methodology has proprietary components, it is not a black box — those proprietary components are under the direction of our senior economists. Our methodology is key to delivering the accuracy and reliability you expect. When you work with us here at ITR Economics, you are NOT getting ChatGPT repackaged.

Our Approach to AI: Criteria for Future Adoption

Our ongoing commitment is that we will continue striving to be better for you. As part of that 75+ year journey of improvement, we have adopted new technologies when they could bring benefit to you while ensuring the data that you trust us with is protected. With that in mind, we are working on an upgraded forecasting tool built upon the proprietary methodology that has brought you our 94.7% accuracy rating. However, you have our guarantee that the following will occur:

1. We will be transparent about it, and economists that we have trained will remain a critical part of the process.
2. We will not use a forecasting tool that puts the accuracy of the forecast at risk.
3. Most importantly, any future tool must keep your data completely safe.

Until we are sure that a technology meets our standards, we will not move forward with it. You can count on our economists for every analysis, because your business deserves nothing less.

Commitment to Clients: Ensuring Quality, Accuracy, and Impact

At the end of the day, what matters most to us is you. By sticking with human experts, we make sure your reports are tailored to your goals and your situation. We take your success personally, and our combined experience lets us tackle your challenges with confidence. Your data stays protected, your needs come first, and your wellbeing guides every forecast we make.

Human Expertise at the Heart of Our Service

Even as the world becomes more automated, we believe people make the difference. That is why our forecasts are built by experienced professionals who care about your results. With at least 27 years of expertise behind every report, you can trust that your economic insights are in good hands. As technology changes, our commitment to quality and client care stays the same — always putting you first.

“In a world where everything we see is biased, truth is hard to find. It’s sad that so many people and corporations are profiting from dividing us. Thank you all for staying true and having a moral compass. We can’t change the weather but we can change our sails. However if our compass is off, we’ll never know the direction to go.” – ITR Subscriber