Policy, Not Politics

ITR Economics’ research has proven time and again that the economy does not consistently perform better or worse under one political party or the other. Yet the question remains: What does the result of the 2024 election mean for me and my business?

Now that the election is decided, our attention turns to the policies of the incoming Trump administration. It was a contentious campaign cycle, but how much of the campaign rhetoric will result in actual policy changes remains to be seen. By the time of the Summit in March, the new administration will be in place, and we will have a better sense of which policies were left on the campaign trail and which will impact economic outcomes.

This session will examine the likely impacts of various policies, including tariffs, mass deportations, changes to the tax code, reduced regulation, and others. Many oft-discussed Trump policies tend to be inflationary. We will examine the preexisting drivers of the higher inflation we anticipate will start in late 2025, and we will separate those fundamental drivers from the additional pricing impacts that may result from policies. We will also touch on current uncertainty drivers, such as the labor market, for businesses that may be affected.

With the uncertainty of election season behind us, many firms now expect that a wave of new investment will be unleashed. How realistic is this view, and is now really the time to invest?

We encourage business leaders to look beyond the politics – whether optimism around the victorious candidate or commiseration around the defeated one – and focus on the policies. This is the best way prepare your business for the reality to come. Red or blue, you can still make green.