At ITR Economics, our goal is to help businesses navigate uncertainty with confidence. Our 94.7% forecast accuracy four quarters out reflects our twin goals: a high forecast accuracy and forecast longevity.
To accomplish these goals, our forecasts utilize rigorous analysis, a proven methodology, and a deep understanding of the human and economic forces shaping our world. Four core pillars define our forecasting process: data analysis, leading indicator evidence, long-term business cycle theory, and the understanding and application of current events.
1. Data Analysis: Building a Foundation of Facts
Every forecast begins with data that is clean and contextualized. Our economists dig into historical and real-time economic information to identify patterns and relationships that drive the economy forward. But data alone isn’t enough; it’s how we interpret it that makes the difference. Through advanced analytics and decades of experience, our team uncovers meaningful signals and ensures every conclusion rests on a solid empirical base.
Our forecasting methodology relies on a robust set of leading indicators, metrics that precede broader economic changes. These indicators, carefully selected and refined over time, act as an early warning system for both the economy and individual businesses. They help us identify inflection points, giving business leaders the lead time they need to make informed strategic decisions before conditions shift.
Economic fluctuations are not random; they follow identifiable, cyclical patterns. Our proprietary long-term business cycle theory allows us to anticipate these shifts with remarkable precision. By studying historical cycles and aligning them with current trends, we can pinpoint where the economy is today and project where it will be heading years from now. This is a key differentiator that allowed us, for example, to spot the upcoming business cycle weakness of the Great Recession well in advance of our peers, resulting in better business outcomes for our clients.
The final pillar, understanding and applying current events, is where our economists bridge data with real-world experience. Economic models and indicators cannot capture the full impact of human behavior, policy changes, or global disruptions. That’s why our economists work directly with clients to understand their industries, markets, and challenges.
By learning how businesses operate and how current events affect them, our team can apply macroeconomic context in a way that makes forecasts actionable. This human connection transforms raw data into strategic insight, ensuring our forecasts are both accurate and practical. This element was especially critical, for example, during the pandemic’s onset — when data was lagged to a pandemic that was unfolding with rapid speed — enabling us to accurately forecast the “sharp down, sharp bounce-back” cycle we experienced in 2020-22.
In an era dominated by algorithms and automation, ITR Economics stands apart by putting economists at the center of forecasting. Our experts don’t just run models; they interpret, challenge, and refine them. They make informed decisions that combine quantitative evidence with real-world understanding. This balance of analytical rigor and human insight allows us to deliver forecasts that our clients can both trust and articulate with confidence, internally and externally. Reach out to us today and together we can lay the analytical foundation for tomorrow’s decisions.