*This blog was originally published February 2024.
The coming depression of the 2030s will have a varying impact on countries across the globe. Within the US, too, some states will fare better than others.
Whether it is affordability, job availability, or simply being a good place to live, each state will have its own opportunities to leverage and challenges to overcome. Based on our own criteria, we have compiled a list of the five best US states and the five worst US states to be in during the 2030s depression.
10 Factors Used to Determine State Ranking
There are 10 factors involved in these lists. The criteria we used to rank which states will be hit the hardest and which will fare the best in the 2030s include:
- Tax climate
- Economic diversity
- Unfunded pension liability per capita
- State debt per capita
- Job creation
- Tax revenue per capita
- Persons in poverty
- Persons without health insurance
- Percentage of population over 65 years old
- Housing affordability
Top 5 US States With the Lowest Level of Risk in the 2030s
- Utah
- Georgia
- Idaho
- South Dakota
- Oklahoma
The states with the lowest risk have several factors in common, including population growth, economic diversity, and low per capita levels of state debt and unfunded state pension liability. Comparatively lower percentages of people under age 65 without health insurance and of people in poverty are also important considerations.
Top 5 US States With the Highest Level of Risk in the 2030s
- Connecticut
- Rhode Island
- Massachusetts
- Hawaii
- New Jersey
The Northeast claims four of the five states that will face the most risk in the next decade. These East Coast states contend with numerous difficulties, including negative population movement – i.e., people moving out – as well as age and demographic challenges.
Factors such as state population growth can have a significant impact on the success of both businesses and workers. This is especially true for workers with careers in a specific trade, as a declining state population can reduce the amount of available work in that state.
Conclusion
If you’re evaluating how different regions may perform in the years ahead, it’s important to take a holistic view of the underlying economic and demographic trends shaping each state. Factors such as population movement, fiscal health, and economic diversity will continue to influence both risk exposure and opportunity.
By staying informed and proactively assessing these dynamics, individuals and organizations can make more strategic decisions about where to invest, operate, and grow.