“You cannot change the wind, but you can adjust your sails.”
If you have attended a keynote or webinar by ITR Economics, you have likely heard us say that. We are acknowledging that economic forces (wind) are beyond your control and that your business (boat) is to a certain degree subject to them. However, you have tools (sails) at your disposal that give you the power to leverage what the economy gives you and move forward to your destination.
Practically speaking, you cannot change the trajectory of the US industrial economy, which is right now slowing in growth and headed for contraction starting in the second half of this year and extending through 2024.
You can adjust your sails. Do you have a sufficient cash buffer to help you weather the downturn? Are you on a first-name basis with your banker? Are you judiciously weighing capital investments not only for profit potential but for labor-saving and efficiency benefits?
Sailing is but one example. Sports in general distill the essence of effort, teamwork, and achievement and therefore provide excellent metaphors for business and economics. The Super Bowl having occurred last weekend, football is still fresh in the minds of many.
Remember the Spygate scandal of the 2000s? In 2007, the New England Patriots and specifically Bill Belichick, the head coach, were disciplined for filming the signals of their opponents’ coaches from an unauthorized location. The controversy started with a Sept. 9, 2007, game against the New York Jets, and it was later alleged that Belichick had been engaging in the practice since 2000.
The NFL considered the infraction serious enough to fine Belichick $500,000 personally and the Patriots $250,000 as a team. The Patriots also lost their first-round selection in the 2008 NFL Draft.
Why did the league consider it such a serious infraction? For one thing, the Patriots’ knowing what would happen in the game before it occurred would give them a serious competitive advantage.
At ITR Economics, we will not be spying on your competitors. But we can tell you what is going to happen “in the field” before it occurs. Our whole mission is to give you the best economic intelligence so you can make the most profitable and practical business decisions.
Part of that includes watching (not spying on) the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s actions during the first half of this year will be critical to whether we can expect the US macroeconomy to commence post-recession rise at the outset of 2025 as forecasted.
Our subscribers will receive weekly updates from ITR Economics CEO Brian Beaulieu on developments related to the Fed and what they mean for the economy, our outlook, and your business. We are calling these updates “Fed Watch.”
Want to get the latest economic intelligence, from an unbiased perspective and without the media noise? Talk to us.
