Finally Some Good News

We’ve warned you about the softening trend in consumer incomes that we are watching carefully. We’ve informed you that inflation-adjusted B2B spending is slightly above year-ago levels.

We’ve continued our push to instill a sense of urgency around preparing for the 2030s depression. It’s our job to communicate the facts and the data, not political spin or unfounded bullishness/bearishness, and we are always on the lookout for data-based insights to share, be they “good” or “bad.”

You are probably ready for some good economic news. Here you go:

Exports Are Strong

Annual US Exports of Goods to the World came in at $2.234 trillion in February, a record high and 8.1% above the year-ago level.

• The quarterly growth rate — i.e. the rate of growth of the most recent three-month period relative to those same three months from one year prior — is at a lofty 12.6%.
• The fact that the quarterly growth rate is higher than the annual growth rate and still rising means that annual Exports are likely to continue to accelerate.
• Exports are posting meaningful rise even when adjusted for inflation.

Durable Goods Inventories Are Leaning Out as Sales Firm

The US Durable Goods Wholesale Sales/Inventory Ratio is rising, which means that inventory turns are picking up.

• The quarterly trend is 9.1% above the year-ago level, the strongest reading in more than four years.
• As with Exports, the quarterly growth rate is higher than the annual growth rate, meaning sustainable positivity in at least the near term.

The Ratio is an important metric because when inventory turns are picking up, it bodes well for the durable goods space. Durable goods are a key component of the US economy that was weakened by excess inventory in 2023-24, with 2025 only better by comparison.

Ongoing rise in the Sales-to-Inventory Ratio supports our forecast for Wholesale Trade of Durable Goods rise this year.

We Are Powering Up

US Engines and Turbines Production tracks production of equipment that generates power and moves it through machines. It excludes anything automotive related but includes industrial engines and components like gears, clutches, and drive chains. These are the behind-the-scenes parts that keep factories, construction equipment, and infrastructure running. Production currently has a quarterly growth rate of 16.3%.

This is a market that has arguably exhibited secular decline, but recent trends call that into question; the annual average is at a more than six-year high.

Accelerating growth in the domestic manufacturing of engines and turbines is a signal of the strength of legacy industrial markets at this point in time. This is also supported by the aforementioned positivity in durable goods markets. Legacy manufacturing had been lagging, and some markets — such as automotive — still are. But there are opportunities to be had; in addition to Engines and Turbines Production, growth trends are evident in machinery and fabricated metals. All of these are production indexes; therefore, this is rising volume, not just inflation.

The Bottom Line

Overall US Industrial Production is rising, and certain markets are exhibiting standout performances. Are you putting your efforts where the strength is — and where the strength is headed? If you’d like to explore solutions that are tailored to your business, reach out to us to get started.