--- title: "ITR Experts Say: Bad Data, Not Disaster, Struck December Sales" description: After a several-week delay, the US Census Bureau finally released December 2018 Retail Sales data, and the results were frightening. image: https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/feb212019.png --- # ITR Experts Say: Bad Data, Not Disaster, Struck December Sales After a several-week delay, the US Census Bureau finally released December 2018 Retail Sales data, and the results were frightening. [ Connor Lokar ](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/author/connor-lokar) Feb 21, 2019 --- After a several-week delay, thanks to the government shutdown, the US Census Bureau finally released December 2018 Retail Sales data, and the results were frightening. Frightening at a cursory glance, that is. After a deeper dive, the figures do not pass the smell test. As currently reported, December 2018 nominal Retail Sales came in at roughly $570.0 billion. While an impressive sum on the surface, it represents a relatively thin 8.6% increase from the November 2018 level. This would grade as the slowest December month-to-month gain in consumer spending on record – a record extending back 72 years! If US consumers truly posted the worst December holiday spending performance on record, it would be a nightmare for US retailers. We feel this figure is anomalous and likely the outcome of disrupted data collection during the government shutdown for a few reasons: - The seasonal rising trend in consumer spending though November was moving at a relatively strong clip and showing no overt signs of distress. - In fact, it was strong relative to the last 10 or so years, and well above average for this century. - Though our other exogenous leading indicator inputs do point to some distress, none of them can corroborate or support a "worst-ever" pullback from the consumer. Perhaps the most compelling news refuting the US Census Bureau data comes from Walmart, which on Feb. 19 reported its best holiday quarter earnings in over a decade, significantly beating analyst projections in the process. Part of Walmart’s strong quarter did stem from the closing of Toys R Us, which offered additional share in the toy market for the holiday season. Still, it is hard to reconcile expectations-beating holiday-quarter growth from America’s largest retailer with the disastrous industry data. That is not to say it will be clear sailing for the consumer in 2019 – far from it, in fact. My colleague Catherine Putney will be detailing the challenges facing the US consumer in 2019 in the[ ITR Economics February Retail Sales Webinar](https://www.itreconomics.com/content/retail-sales-2019). With the shutdown behind us, we expect the US Census Bureau will recover and try to "clean up the noise" in the December data and hopefully give us a clearer picture moving forward. For now, the sky is not falling – but it is getting darker.    **[Connor Lokar](https://www.itreconomics.com/content/speaking-services)** Economist ## Similar posts ### [ITR Experts Say: Who Owns the US National Debt?](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/itr-experts-say-who-owns-national-debt) The economic reality is that we need to recognize that we are living beyond our means as a country, and we need to take steps to address the problem. ITR Economics Apr 3, 2019 ### [ITR Experts Say: Tracking Tariffs and the 10-Year Yield](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/itr-experts-say-tracking-tariffs) At the start of the new year, we at ITR noticed a definite increase in caution among our consulting clients as well as the audiences at our... Connor Lokar May 20, 2019 ### [ITR Experts Say: Keep an Eye on Japan](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/itr-experts-say-keep-eye-on-japan) Japan’s population declined for the 8th straight year in 2018, an unfortunate truth confirmed by the country's Internal Affairs & Communications... Connor Lokar Apr 18, 2019 ### Free Economic Updates from ITR Economics Hear the latest economic news from our experts, stay in the know with our frequent blogs, and get a first look at ITR Economics’ latest promotions – all free with our economic updates! Join our email list today to receive these insights. ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Connor Lokar", "url" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/author/connor-lokar" }, "dateModified" : "2020-10-09T18:09:34.724Z", "datePublished" : "2019-02-21T18:56:12.000Z", "headline" : "ITR Experts Say: Bad Data, Not Disaster, Struck December Sales", "image" : [ "https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/feb212019.png" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/itr-experts-say-bad-data-struck-december-sales", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/ITR%20Logo%20-%20Light%20Backgrounds-1.png" }, "name" : "ITR Economics" } } ```