Labor Supply and Wage Trends Through 2025

Government policies stemming from the pandemic resulted in high unemployment.

The brisk recovery/growth we are now experiencing has created a demand for labor that is seemingly no longer in supply. There are 125.7 million people working today. The number of self-identified unemployed stands at 7.4 million. Of those, 48.8% have been unemployed longer than 15 weeks. That indicates that nearly half of those unemployed within the last 15 weeks find themselves in that state when job openings are at a record high.

Concurrently, businesses of all types are searching for people, and the quit rate among employees is skyrocketing. These are unusual circumstances that have consequences for our ability to grow and what our cost structure will look like between now and the next recession. Understanding which parts of the labor pool are exhibiting the worst labor participation rates may help businesses craft effective strategies for retaining, and attracting, talent in this highly competitive market.

It is unlikely government will be the solution that businesses need when it comes to labor. We contend that by knowing the trends, individual businesses can drive the solutions for their specific needs. But there is no instant fix. Our forecasts go through 2025, but this is an issue that will likely plague us through the rest of this decade.

Where are current labor supply trends leading us? What are the costs likely to be going forward?

Tight labor conditions and escalating wages are issues inhibiting growth and profitability. ITR CEO Brian Beaulieu and President Alan Beaulieu will look at today’s trend and share our view through 2025 at our upcoming webinar, Labor Supply and Wage Trends Through 2025.