After a healthy growth year in 2018, expansion in the US manufacturing sector ground to a halt in 2019, contracting in the second half of the year. At this time in 2019, we predicted the decline; the actual data over the course of the year was in congruence with our forecast. Per the latest data, the decline in the data trend for the US Total Manufacturing Production Index persists. Furthermore, the negative 3/12 (quarter-over-quarter) rate-of-change and a myriad of leading indicators indicate that manufacturing will face further downside business cycle pressure.
Many factors in addition to normal business cycle changes will influence the level of manufacturing activity we can expect to see for some manufacturers in 2020. The latest developments in trade – ranging from the ratification of the USMCA, to our trade relationship with China after the implementation of the Phase 1 trade deal, to the state of US manufacturing exports to the EU and Britain post-Brexit – will impact manufacturing-sector performance this year.
With all that in mind, what can you expect from the manufacturing sector in 2020?
In our January webinar, we will outline our predictions for manufacturing in the year ahead. We will assess industrial activity levels around the world and take a closer look at specific market sectors of manufacturing, such as aerospace, automotive, chemicals, defense, electrical equipment, food, machinery, medical, mining, and oil & gas. Using ITR’s proven leading indicator methodology, we will help you prepare for what’s coming and empower you to make better strategic decisions at the right times. We hope you can join us!