Explore emerging trends in US manufacturing as economic forecasts reveal uneven growth and opportunities across sub-sectors.
After several years of uneven recovery, the US manufacturing sector is beginning to show renewed momentum.
Leading indicators point to mild growth in 2026, supported by increasing business investment, expanding capacity, and strong demand in select industries. However, this is not a uniform recovery.
Unlike the service sector, manufacturing has not fully regained its pre–Great Recession trajectory. Growth today is fragmented, with clear winners and losers emerging across sub-sectors. At the same time, other sectors remain under pressure or in recovery. In the March 2026 Business Series webinar for ITR Insiders, ITR Economics keynote speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker will outline our forecasts and key drivers for a number of key manufacturing subsegments — from machinery to heavy duty trucking to aerospace and more — so you can identify the best opportunities and pivot away from weaker segments.
Pricing and cost dynamics are adding another layer of complexity. Producer prices are expected to rise in 2026, with continued inflationary pressure driven by commodities, labor shortages, and energy demand. Skilled labor constraints are pushing wages higher and creating operational challenges for manufacturers.
Meanwhile, capital investment is rising. Manufacturing construction is beginning to decline, but it is at an elevated level, fueled in part by reshoring initiatives and policy incentives such as the CHIPS Act. This expansion of capacity is expected to support production growth in the near term, even as borrowing costs remain elevated.
The key takeaway for business leaders is that opportunity exists, but it is unevenly distributed. Success in this environment will depend on understanding where demand is accelerating, aligning with the right sub-sectors, and leveraging competitive advantages to outperform broader industry trends.
This webinar recording is an Insider member exclusive! Sign up today to receive this complimentary recording later this month, and receive answers to questions like:
Is US manufacturing entering a sustained growth cycle, or are current gains temporary?
Which manufacturing sectors are best positioned for growth through 2027?
How will persistent inflation and labor shortages impact production costs and margins?
Where should my business invest to capitalize on reshoring and capacity expansion trends?
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