Preparing for the 2030s: Key Questions Leaders Are Asking

We received many thoughtful questions regarding our economic outlook for the next decade during our December 2025 Executive Series webinar.

As leaders think about preparing for the 2030s, many are asking the same fundamental question: What should we be doing now to prepare for the next major economic cycle? While financial decisions should be discussed with a qualified advisor, we identified several themes relevant to business leaders and investors as they determine how to navigate the years ahead.

Key Themes Emerging From Leader Questions

What Will Drive the 2030s Depression?

Our outlook for the 2030s is not based on a single driver but rather on long-term structural pressures that have been building for decades. Demographics, healthcare costs, entitlement spending, inflation, and national debt are all contributing to a coming pullback in demand. These systemic forces — not a single shock — shape our long-term forecast.

Understanding these forces now allows leaders to make smarter strategic decisions throughout the remainder of the 2020s.

Why Services Often Hold Up Better

During severe downturns, service sectors tend to hold up better than goods-producing industries because many services are less discretionary. While consumers may delay purchasing manufactured goods, services such as healthcare, maintenance, and professional services remain necessary.

For business leaders, this distinction highlights the importance of understanding where resilience may exist within their markets.

Where Investors Are Looking for Stability

Many participants also asked about protecting wealth going into the 2030s. In past research we have highlighted sovereign bonds from countries such as Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and Sweden as potential safe havens for some investors seeking stability during difficult economic periods.

As always, investment decisions should reflect individual financial goals, timelines, and risk tolerance.

Will AI Change the Forecast?

Artificial intelligence continues to raise questions about how technology could reshape the economy. We expect AI to be a job inhibitor in the near term (late 2020s), primarily for white collar jobs. Medium term (2030–36), it will contribute to the high unemployment we expect during the depression period. During the recovery after 2036 the new technology — combined with a generational shift in economic and political power — will lead to the new industries and new jobs that we cannot fully imagine today. We have built these expectations into our long-term macroeconomic forecasts.

Looking Ahead

The rest of the 2020s is a critical window for preparation. Leaders who strengthen their balance sheets, improve operational resilience, and think strategically about profitability will be best positioned for the challenges — and opportunities — of the next economic cycle.

In our upcoming Executive Series Webinar on Profitless Prosperity, we will take a deeper look at the economic forces shaping the next decade and discuss how businesses can prepare for a future where growth may not always translate into profits.

If you have additional questions about these trends or how they may impact your planning, please reach out to our team.