Solutions
ITR Experts Say: Bond Market Raises Red Flags
Last week, the bond market flashed several key warning signs typically associated with worsening economic outcomes.
Tune in to this Business Series Webinar with ITR Senior Forecaster Connor Lokar to learn about the risks and opportunities in the service sector.
As we wade into 2024, the service sector has remained strong, buoying overall US GDP. Economic sectors that are more sensitive to interest rates, such as manufacturing and housing, have been less fortunate. This has been corroborated by diverging leading indicator inputs, with service sector indicators holding up better than their industrial and manufacturing counterparts.
However, this service sector strength is unlikely to continue indefinitely as the economy continues its progression down the back side of the business cycle and slower growth creeps in. Recent inputs from the employment components of some leading indicators for the service sector suggest that this is already happening.
In this webinar, we will examine the service sector’s divergence from other components of the economy. We will look at individual markets such as accommodation and food services, retail trade, finance and insurance, transportation and warehousing, entertainment and recreation, and more.
It is probable that we will ultimately see cooling service sector activity on a belated basis, which will be relevant to the expected cooling in US GDP and the broader economy as 2024 wears on.
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