---
title: Economic Outlook Following 1Q25 US GDP Data
description: What does the recent 1Q25 US GDP data mean for the economy going forward? Read our blog to find out!
image: https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/BlogImage_GDP.png
---

News

# Economic Outlook Following 1Q25 US GDP Data

What does the recent 1Q25 US GDP data mean for the economy going forward? Read our blog to find out!

[ ITR Economics ](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/author/itr-economics)

 May 1, 2025

---

The headline GDP result of -0.3% obscures the underlying economic reality.

The decrease was almost entirely due to a surge in imports – which mathematically detract from the GDP calculation – as consumers and businesses sought to get ahead of new tariffs. Modest additional downside came from the government spending component of GDP, as federal cuts were not offset by slight increases on the state and local level.

For business leaders, this result is another negative headline that will likely weigh on sentiment. But it is critical to focus on the drivers of the GDP contraction: government spending and the timing of import activity. These are not the harbingers of a traditional recession, and 1Q25 certainly did not “feel” like a recession to most businesses.

While uncertainty may be delaying decision-making for some firms, overall gross private domestic investment rose in 1Q25. The labor market remains strong, resulting in stable consumer finances. As a result, consumer spending – which accounts for two thirds of GDP – rose at a normal rate across both the goods and services categories.

ITR Economics expects growth for the remainder of 2025.

[![  Sign up for our Trusted Insights newsletter!    Receive the latest videos, blogs, news, partner updates, and more from ITR Economics every week. Sign up today to stay informed.  ](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/4424930/interactive-185714257427.png) ](https://blog.itreconomics.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLJO%2Fl%2BRgaEYblR2gAFimC%2BqEFj%2B%2BzGJWnxarboj7rL%2BsYEDGI67WHSfzpnNm7V1d%2FElIi1f%2BAQNrKYoqk05DDGyS2EOvvtonWImPTsmFF10Jkj3hcn1I444LcMU6ou2O247wromjcNoQxaXgMj3EgsXK%2FJKIaP8f3CZTUGwCTCAYRTLFdjnWvMEkRxX9zYGQqI%3D&webInteractiveContentId=185714257427&portalId=4424930)

[News](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/tag/news)

## Similar posts

<https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/gdp-may-decline-in-1q25-but-do-not-blame-the-consumer>

News

### [GDP May Decline in 1Q25 but Do Not Blame the Consumer](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/gdp-may-decline-in-1q25-but-do-not-blame-the-consumer)

While GDP may decline in the first quarter of 2025 due to front-loaded imports, the economy is expected to recover later in the year.

 ITR Economics  Mar 20, 2025

<https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/economic-recovery-in-2025-trust-and-also-verify>

News

### [Economic Recovery in 2025: Trust, and Also Verify](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/economic-recovery-in-2025-trust-and-also-verify)

Some people have recently expressed less confidence about our outlook for economic rise in 2025. See what the data says about our 2025 forecast.

 ITR Economics  Jul 7, 2023

<https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/encouraging-news-world-exports>

News

### [Encouraging News From the World of Exports](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/encouraging-news-world-exports)

The export of US goods to the rest of the world is providing positive input regarding our forecast for acceleration in the rate of US economic...

 Alan Beaulieu  Feb 27, 2020

### Free Economic Updates from ITR Economics

Hear the latest economic news from our experts, stay in the know with our frequent blogs, and get a first look at ITR Economics’ latest promotions – all free with our economic updates! Join our email list today to receive these insights.

```json
{
  "@context" : "https://schema.org",
  "@type" : "BlogPosting",
  "author" : {
    "@type" : "Person",
    "name" : "ITR Economics",
    "url" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/author/itr-economics"
  },
  "dateModified" : "2025-05-01T20:49:15.295Z",
  "datePublished" : "2025-05-01T20:49:15.000Z",
  "headline" : "Economic Outlook Following 1Q25 US GDP Data",
  "image" : [ "https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/BlogImage_GDP.png" ],
  "mainEntityOfPage" : {
    "@id" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/economic-outlook-following-1q25-us-gdp-data",
    "@type" : "WebPage"
  },
  "publisher" : {
    "@type" : "Organization",
    "logo" : {
      "@type" : "ImageObject",
      "url" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/ITR%20Logo%20-%20Light%20Backgrounds-1.png"
    },
    "name" : "ITR Economics"
  }
}
```