--- title: A Leading Indicator Approach to COVID-19 description: Our goal was to develop a data-driven approach to analyzing the pandemic, one that would help us cut through the noise and fear surrounding this black swan image: https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/Blog%20Images/April%202020/apr142020-1.png --- # A Leading Indicator Approach to COVID-19 Our goal was to develop a data-driven approach to analyzing the pandemic, one that would help us cut through the noise and fear surrounding this black swan [ ITR Economics ](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/author/itr-economics) Apr 14, 2020 --- When the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020, we started tracking the number of confirmed infections and associated deaths. Our goal was to develop a data-driven approach to analyzing the pandemic – one that would help us cut through the noise and fear surrounding this black swan. As of mid-April, global testing practices are still lagging in scope and breadth, and the fatalities data is also far from perfect. The world must overcome both of these obstacles to get ahead of the pandemic’s curve. However, we believe that it’s possible to leverage this data as a leading indicator to get a sense of when the virus may be peaking and then, hopefully, subsiding. We’ve found that tracking total infections helps us get a sense of how developments associated with the virus are unfolding. As you can see in the chart below, which shows the daily and cumulative infections around the world, we had a potential peak in the daily cases (blue bars) on April 5. It does not yet confirm that a higher daily total won’t happen, but it is a promising sign. It’s also quite evident that the cumulative cases (red line) are still rising sharply, indicating that we’re not out of the woods yet. ![Global cases](https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/image-85.png) We’ve also been tracking the number of deaths in a similar manner. A parallel picture has emerged in this data as well – for the past five days, worldwide deaths (daily – red bars) have been lower than the potential peak number witnessed April 8. While this is also encouraging, the ongoing rise in cumulative deaths (yellow line) continues steadily, with no sign of flattening just yet. ![Global deaths](https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/image-86.png) We will continue to monitor both datasets for signs of improvement. We're eagerly awaiting the days when the cumulative infections data starts flattening, as that will signal an end to deaths as well. In the meantime, please **[stay tuned to our updates](https://itreconomics.com/free-economic-updates)**, as we are here to help you cut through the fear of these uncertain times and make good business decisions based not on emotion, but on quality data.   ## Similar posts Industry Updates ### [US Manufacturing Is in Recession – How Long Will It Last?](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/us-manufacturing-is-in-recession-how-long-will-it-last) US Manufacturing is currently in a recession. How long will this recession last, and what's in store for manufacturing in 2025? Find out here! ITR Economics Mar 19, 2024 Solutions ### [Manufacturing in 2020: Preparing for Growth](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/manufacturing-growth-2020) What can you expect from the manufacturing sector in 2020? In our January webinar, we will outline our predictions for manufacturing in the year... ITR Economics Jan 9, 2020 Industry Updates ### [Housing Construction: Some Good News](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/housing-construction-some-good-news) We anticipate that inflation will reach a cyclical low in the latter half of 2024. Will the relief last? Find out in a new blog from ITR Economics! ITR Economics Aug 17, 2023 ### Free Economic Updates from ITR Economics Hear the latest economic news from our experts, stay in the know with our frequent blogs, and get a first look at ITR Economics’ latest promotions – all free with our economic updates! Join our email list today to receive these insights. ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "ITR Economics", "url" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/author/itr-economics" }, "dateModified" : "2021-06-08T17:07:26.424Z", "datePublished" : "2020-04-14T17:38:21.000Z", "headline" : "A Leading Indicator Approach to COVID-19", "image" : [ "https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/Blog%20Images/April%202020/apr142020-1.png" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/leading-indicator-approach-covid19", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/ITR%20Logo%20-%20Light%20Backgrounds-1.png" }, "name" : "ITR Economics" } } ```