By Lauren Saidel-Baker on Sep 4, 2019 9:26:55 AM
With budgeting season upon us, our attention shifts to 2020, even if the calendar won’t do so for a few more months. 2019 represented an inflection point in many markets, with the US macroeconomy rounding the corner to the back side of the business cycle. If you have been following ITR Economics’ forecasts, these trends did not catch you by surprise.
Now the question becomes: How deep will the downturn be, and how long will it last? By utilizing rate-of-change and leading indicator analysis, businesses can ascertain future trends now, and budget proactively.
We do not expect a technical recession – commonly defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth – this business cycle. However, many sectors, including the US industrial economy, will contract late this year or early next year. The good news is that the downturn will be both brief and mild, with growth expected to return before 2020 is over.
Understanding the steepness of decline and the timing of the business cycle turn will allow firms to prepare their financial plans for 2020 and beyond with confidence. Not all markets will move in lockstep next year. Knowing where your business stands and where your industry is headed will benefit you as you make the strategic and tactical moves needed to outperform in the coming years.