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US Debt-to-GDP Ratio Worsening on Both Fronts

The level of US federal debt will roughly equal the size of the entire US economy in FY2020, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). In an ...
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Learning Recession Lessons with the Fed

Since the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global recession, the US Federal Reserve has been quite active in its attempt to support markets and the economy. Beginning with an ...
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When Data Is Volatile, Focus on the Long Game

The dust is settling from the double black swan events of early 2020, and we are examining the economic data to reveal the extent of the impact. Early signs are showing a ...
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Amid Historic Job Losses, Incomes Are…Rising?

It may sound counterintuitive, but it’s true. US Disposable Personal Income in April was 13.8% higher than the year-ago level.
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The Changing Retail Landscape

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the retail sector hard. US Total Retail Sales in March were 6.7% below the March 2019 level. March data revealed a double-digit decline in several ...
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Small Mercies - The Consumer Could Be Worse

The coming weeks and months will bring new data regarding the magnitude of ongoing economic decline, and the majority of it will likely be quite negative. While reasons for ...
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