ITR Economics is the oldest, privately-held, continuously operating, economic research and consulting firm in the US.
The following are a few quotable insights from ITR Economics CEO Brian Beaulieu and President Alan Beaulieu on the economic depression that ITR Economics is forecasting for the 2030s.
“There’s not going to be anything ‘great’ about it.”
-Brian, explaining why “Great Depression” could be a bit of a misnomer for the 2030s downturn
- For many, the decade will be characterized by lost opportunities, economic distress, lost fortunes, and deep regrets – all outcomes that are far from “great.”
- But beyond that, “Great Depression” may imply that we are expecting a “1930s redux,” and we are not.
- ITR Economics does not expect to see breadlines, due in part to today’s social safety net programs.
- While we expect some deflation in the later years of the event, it will not be as intense as the deflation of the 1930s.
- Those who prepare for the depression should be able to identify opportunities and prosper within the downturn.
“It doesn’t matter what your age – if you’re listening to us today and you’re a millennial, you have to be doing things to get ready. If you’re Gen Z, you have to be doing things to get ready. Everything you do this decade makes the 2030s better, and if you do enough of it, you’ll be able to really prosper in the 2030s.”
-Alan on the urgent need for preparation
- The depression is six years away, though Brian and Alan noted that the arrival time could come a couple years earlier or later.
- The depression will wipe out the macroeconomic growth that occurs between now and the circa-2030 peak, returning the economy to approximately the point we are at now. That is why the economic rise that will occur over the rest of the current decade is so important.
- “You’ve got to keep your eye on that rise,” Brian said. “That’s where you want to make the most wealth you can and, at the top, lock it down at the very least.”
“Cheap money – free money – is gone. Those days have left. This is the new era where interest rates are going to be higher.”
-Brian on the trajectory of interest rates leading up to the depression
- We expect interest rates are likely to relax to an extent in 2024 and into 2025, which will help provide the lift that will end next year’s industrial sector recession as we move past 2024.
- However, our forecast for US Government Long-Term Bond Yields suggests that interest rates will ultimately rise again, climbing steeply in the last couple years of this decade.
- Millennials and Gen Z-ers in the market for a home will want to make their purchase before interest rates resume their upward climb.
“Their philosophies were different, how they approached the economy, how they approached the world – everything was different about these people, except the rate of growth in GDP!”
-Alan looking back on presidential administrations through Eisenhower and the remarkable consistency of the economy’s trajectory over the last four administrations despite those administrations’ differences and best efforts
- We are on a trajectory toward the 2030s depression regardless of which political party holds the presidency, and even if that party controls Congress in concert with the presidency.
- We cannot vote our way out of what is coming.
The webinar recording is still available here and contains much more, including strategies to prepare for the depression, which states will offer relatively better economic conditions, and more. We also have a resource page on the depression here.