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Post-Election: Our Macro Outlook Is Unchanged
The results of the 2024 US presidential election will not change ITR Economics' macroeconomic forecast, as we follow policies over politics.
This isn’t the first time the number of EU member countries has changed, but the UK's leaving was the most noticeable change in many years.
The EU28 is down to EU27. This isn’t the first time the number of EU member countries has changed, but the UK's leaving was the most noticeable change in many years.
While there are many unintended consequences that are likely to arise moving forward, businesses need to keep progressing. Part of progressing is continuously asking yourself how you are measuring the success of your business. For many, this means comparing your growth to that of the macroeconomy and your selected markets.
The newly updated European Union (EU27) Industrial Production Index, a benchmark for overall economic conditions in Europe, shows that 2019 came in 1.1% below the 2018 level. Industrial Production for the former EU28 during that same time period was also -1.1%. You can see from the below chart that the trends for Industrial Production with and without the UK are almost identical. If your business closely mirrors Industrial Production, there was minimal change to your benchmark.
The changes are more noticeable for some of the individual markets within the economy. European Food and Beverage Production with and without the UK is up 1.5% from the prior year. However, the journey to get to the 1.5% growth rate has been different.
As you move your business forward, make sure you are aligned with the proper benchmarks in this post-Brexit world.
Jackie Greene
Director of Economics