While most of the news is focused on the recent past via economic data, we think it is incumbent upon leaders to look at the economic future via the latest trends in the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with the leading indicators, and an understanding of the recovery trend probabilities for different economies and different markets within an economy.
Although the magnitude is different, this is not the first time we have seen fear disrupt an economic trend. Nor is it the first time an economy has gone into a deep dive. There have not been that many truly black swan events in post-WWII history, but we can cobble enough data together to discern how the current case is different, and how it is similar, to prior experience. We are taking observations and analysis – from as recently as 2009 in looking at the efficacy of the stimulus programs following the Great Recession – to sculpt a view of how differing parts of the economy are likely to respond this time.
When we pull all these pieces together, we can get a reasonable idea of which economies will recover more quickly than others and how long it will take until a complete recovery is in hand. The same analysis can be performed within an economy. For the April 24 webinar, we will take a look at the sectors of the US economy with an eye toward breaking them down into a) how soon, b) how weak/strong, and c) when we will achieve a complete recovery and pre-recession levels of activity.
The daily deluge of economic news concerning the recent past is ominous and depressing. We think businesses should be looking ahead to what is likely in the years ahead. That’s where we come in. Come join us for the April 24, 2020 webinar.