---
title: "Economic Insight: Just as Valuable When Things Are Good"
description: 2020 was a challenging year for many industries, and the oil and gas industry was no exception.
image: https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/apr92021.png
---

# Economic Insight: Just as Valuable When Things Are Good

2020 was a challenging year for many industries, and the oil and gas industry was no exception.

[ Taylor St. Germain ](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/author/taylor-st-germain)

 Apr 9, 2021

---

At ITR Economics™, our consultants and speakers frequently field a certain question: “When is the next economic downturn or recession?”

It's certainly an important question that should always be top of mind, but I would argue that understanding the transitions that occur during the “growth” phases of the business cycle is equally important.

Let me start by sharing that the US economy is in a sustainable recovery trend. Our forecasts call for expansion in the economy in 2021 and 2022. It would be a terrible mistake to assume that the rate of growth we expect for 2021 will continue into 2022. This is not the case, but it is an assumption that organizations tend to make. We are all too familiar with terms like “straight-line budgeting” or “linear budgeting.” Little frustrates an ITR economist more than hearing such things mentioned in a capacity other than cautionary.

Through our analysis of business cycles, we know that the pace at which growth occurs is important to identify. We anticipate that the US industrial economy will reach a cyclical peak during early 2022, transitioning from Phase B, Accelerating Growth, to Phase C, Slowing Growth. It is crucial for you, a leader, to identify this inflection point, because you will make different decisions knowing that the pace of growth is slowing down.

![Business Cycle Phases](https://blog.itreconomics.com/hs-fs/hubfs/BusinessCycle.png?width=2500&name=BusinessCycle.png)

Looking beyond the early-2022 transition to Phase C, Slowing Growth, you will want to know what comes next. While our forecast for the overall macroeconomy says we will not see Phase D, Recession, in 2023, there are several segments of the economy that will be in Phase D, Recession, during that time. Knowing where your vertical markets are going to be will further help you plan for 2022 and 2023. Should you be conserving cash or increasing capacity? Knowing what lies ahead for you and your markets will help you make these key decisions and avoid costly pitfalls.

We have many tools that can help you navigate this business cycle, including our [ITR Trends Report™](https://itrondemand.com/trendsreport), our [Consultative Report](https://www.itreconomics.com/consulting)s and [Forecast Programs](https://www.itreconomics.com/customized-reports), and our new and improved [DataCast™ tool.](https://itrondemand.com/datacast)

 

**[Taylor St. Germain](https://www.itreconomics.com/content/taylor-st-germain)**

Analyst and Speaker

 

 

## Similar posts

<https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/oil-and-gas-2021>

Solutions

### [The State of Oil and Gas in 2021](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/oil-and-gas-2021)

2020 was a challenging year for many industries, and the oil and gas industry was no exception.

 Taylor St. Germain  Apr 22, 2021

<https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/keep-calm-drill-on>

### [Keep Calm and Drill On](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/keep-calm-drill-on)

2020 was a challenging year for many industries, and the oil and gas industry was no exception.

 Taylor St. Germain  Mar 15, 2021

<https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/itr-trends-report-identify-markets-for-growth>

Solutions

### [How Does the ITR Trends Report™ Help Identify Markets for Growth?](https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/itr-trends-report-identify-markets-for-growth)

The ITR Trends Report™ covers the US and world economies, the financial sector, the construction industry, the manufacturing industry, and more.

 ITR Economics  May 23, 2022

### Free Economic Updates from ITR Economics

Hear the latest economic news from our experts, stay in the know with our frequent blogs, and get a first look at ITR Economics’ latest promotions – all free with our economic updates! Join our email list today to receive these insights.

```json
{
  "@context" : "https://schema.org",
  "@type" : "BlogPosting",
  "author" : {
    "@type" : "Person",
    "name" : "Taylor St. Germain",
    "url" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/author/taylor-st-germain"
  },
  "dateModified" : "2021-04-09T18:41:06.725Z",
  "datePublished" : "2021-04-09T18:41:06.000Z",
  "headline" : "Economic Insight: Just as Valuable When Things Are Good",
  "image" : [ "https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/apr92021.png" ],
  "mainEntityOfPage" : {
    "@id" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/economic-insight-when-things-good",
    "@type" : "WebPage"
  },
  "publisher" : {
    "@type" : "Organization",
    "logo" : {
      "@type" : "ImageObject",
      "url" : "https://blog.itreconomics.com/hubfs/ITR%20Logo%20-%20Light%20Backgrounds-1.png"
    },
    "name" : "ITR Economics"
  }
}
```