Construction Manufacturing Recessions

US Economy in 2024 – Where Are We Now?

By ITR Economics on February 20, 2024

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ITR Economics is the oldest, privately-held, continuously operating, economic research and consulting firm in the US.

2024 has so far been a tricky year for businesses. Many are feeling recessionary pressures. Because the major industries move through the phases of the business cycle at varying times, popular tools such as ITR Economics’ Trends Report™ provide unrivaled insight into the state of the US economy and where it is headed. With this year bringing its own set of challenges to business leaders, this snapshot of what 2024 has in store for the US economy and its key industries will help you plan ahead to grow your company moving forward.

US Industrial Production

Our US Industrial Production forecast is a strong indicator for how the US economy as a whole is performing. Right now, the 12-month moving average (12MMA) for US Industrial Production is flat but has started to edge lower.

We expect this decline will characterize most of 2024 and could potentially continue into early 2025 before we see a rising trend. While competing on price is always worth considering for your business, now is a great time to be focusing on other advantages your business might have over your competitors. Discovering and emphasizing these competitive advantages now can put you in a great position to make the most out of the coming economic rise in 2025 and 2026.

US Total Manufacturing

Nearly all major US manufacturing markets are also currently in Phase C, Slowing Growth, and most of them will face Phase D, Recession, this year – a handful are already in declining trends.

However, some sectors, such as medical equipment and computers and electronics, are expected to avoid significant decline. This is because these markets are likely benefiting from nearshoring trends, an aging population, and the CHIPS and Science Act. Also keep in mind that your markets could be more sensitive to today’s elevated interest rates.

While many manufacturing markets will experience a recession this year alongside the US industrial economy as a whole, most will also experience economic rise in 2025 and 2026, so use this insight when planning for the future.

[ Further Reading: 2020 COVID-19 Recession vs 2024 Recession ]

US Total Construction

As of now, US Total Construction is in a vastly different position than US Total Manufacturing, as the majority of construction sectors are in Phase B, Accelerating Growth. Unfortunately, this trend will not last through 2024, as the growth of these markets will begin to slow, with some transitioning into recessionary phases later in 2024. Performance will vary for construction markets in 2025 and 2026.

How are you tracking your markets? Do you know how the coming economic trends will impact your business? What are you doing to prepare your business for the many economic opportunities ahead? By subscribing to ITR Economics’ Trends Report, you will gain access to more than 45 monthly articles covering the trends that are most impactful to your business.

With this popular tool, you can be more confident with your business decisions and direction. To get started, sign up for our free 30-day trial!

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