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ITR Economics’ Premier Services: The EVP™ Programs FAQ

Posted by Kimberly Clark on Jun 19, 2020 10:03:42 AM

What does EVP™ stand for?

Executive Vantage Point – the program was named this because it covers many areas of information needed for effectively planning across most departments within a business. The program thereby gives the executive a “vantage point” from which to plan.

Why is one EVP program called “Flex” and the other called “360”?

The Flex™ program is the “basic” edition of the service, while the 360™ includes additional customizations, giving the executive a “vantage point” with “360 degrees” of visibility into their markets and business environment.

What is the difference between the Flex and the 360?

The 360 includes a customized weighted market index.

What is a customized weighted market index?

The EVP 360 includes both the creation and forecasting of the custom market index – not included in the standard EVP Flex program.

  • We create this index using the percentages of your total sales that go into each of your end-use markets.
  • We then identify the data in our database that matches your markets. Our team will send you our recommendation regarding the datasets that should be used for your custom index, as well the definitions of those datasets, to ensure your team agrees they accurately reflect the markets into which you sell.
  • Once this list of datasets has been finalized, we will perform an analysis to appropriately weight the data to reflect your total market mix.
  • This very complex and lengthy analysis is completed by our most senior economists.
  • While the analysis is complex, the end result provides the business leader with information on how their business relates to their overall market mix. Are there times in the history of the business that the company outperformed their market? Are there times when the company underperformed their market? Or, perhaps the company is just keeping pace.
  • Knowing this information assists you in determining whether your internal initiatives are creating the intended competitive advantage or efficiency gains, or if you are still “riding the economic train.”

What is included in an EVP program?

  • Leading Indicator analysis of your company’s sales data
  • 12-quarter forecast of your company’s sales data
  • Quarterly consultation with our business economist(s)
  • Access to our team of experts for questions throughout the year
  • Monthly access to our main subscription – the ITR Trends Report™ – which includes 45 market forecasts and creates an outlook for your economic landscape

Why should I choose ITR Economics for forecasting my business?

There are quite a few unique advantages to working with our firm. We’re accurate, actionable, mobile-friendly, easily accessible, quick to respond, business oriented, friendly, and employ a unique methodology no other firm uses.

In today’s day and age, everyone wants information readily available at their fingertips. The time of “I don’t have it right now, but I can get it for you” is over.

With our EVP program, you gain access to ITR OnDemand™. This platform will give you online access to our Trends Report, which includes approximately 45 market forecasts, and your personalized company forecast, all in your own company portal.

While ITR Economics is an economics firm that specializes in forecasting, our economists and services are business oriented – it is not just the data we track and forecast that is extremely important to us; it is also the application of this knowledge.

Our firm is the oldest, continuously operating, privately held economic forecasting firm in the United States. We were founded in 1948, and we forecast with unparalleled accuracy.

We can say this with confidence because our unique methodology is unlike that of any other forecasting firm in the market.

But our confidence is not enough. We need you to be confident in our abilities so that you actively use our information in the daily management of your business. To help create this confidence, we are very transparent and readily share our forecast accuracy.

What types of data do you have available to use as leading indicators for my business?

Our robust database of 10,000-plus datasets includes ITR Economics’ own proprietary indicators, the highly recommended macroeconomic indicators, and indicators for major industries such as construction, finance, commodities, and vertical markets within the overall manufacturing industry.

Our ITR proprietary indicators give your business a key competitive advantage – seeing further into the future with confidence. For example, our ITR Leading Indicator™, initially developed in the 1980s, has not miscalled or missed calling a US recession since its inception. We continue to develop new indicators with our expert analysts in our effort to provide the greatest, most reliable foresight for our clients.

You will receive the Trends Report via OnDemand with your EVP program. The market forecasts included cover this wide spectrum of the economy.

How do I know that I will relate well to the indicators?

To ensure we provide an accurate forecast for you, we perform a data vetting process prior to any agreement being finalized. This vetting process is to ensure your data works well with our rates-of-change methodology.

How many years of data history do I need?

It is important to have monthly data for at least a seven-year period. As a rule, the longer the data history, the more accurate the forecast.

What data should I send to you?

The answer is twofold:

First, use data that is readily available. Most of us have kept records of our sales, orders, or cash received that we can use. To start, work with whatever data is easiest to get your hands on.

Second, if you have choices in what data to use, examine the metric you are most interested in analyzing. Revenue or sales are the most common, but you can use others, including orders, backlog, and inventory levels.

What is a leading indicator?

It is a dataset that has strong predictability to your company data’s cyclical movement through the business cycle. Its turns in the business cycle precede your turns, and you can use that timing to see into your company's future with a great deal of accuracy. We like to think of it as a train. Each industry is its own rail car. Your business is also a rail car. Our team identifies which industries precede your railcar on the train, so that when the train track goes around a corner, you know how much time you have before your company moves around that corner.

What constitutes a “best” indicator?

We identify those that have the most applicability to what your business does, the best predictability to your turning points, and the longest lead time.

What do the leading indicators “tell me”?

When two of your leading indicators go up or down, pay attention. Take notice and look to see whether other leading indicators confirm that a directional change is real.

When two of your leading indicators tell you that the wind has begun to shift, start planning, because planning takes time. Decide which sails must be set and who will be manning the ropes.

When five leading indicators reverse direction, act.

It’s usually solid evidence that the economy is turning. Move forward with confidence because the system is telling you that a fundamental shift in the momentum of the economy is taking place. Have your resources lined up, and be ready to implement your plan, because change is on the way.

Many people will feel their adrenaline pumping because economic conditions are about to get exciting again!

Our economists will point out these details and help you understand what the system is telling you to do.

 

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