Separating the Wheat From the Political Chaff

We are living through a time when "unprecedented" is so applicable it almost sounds normal. Yet this is anything but normal. The US response to the virus and the resulting almost complete economic shutdown has prompted the largest stimulus package in our history, and it has raised some significant questions. We will be addressing three of those questions in our June webinar.

1. The stimulus plans have resulted in massive deficit spending. We will look into the magnitude and potential impact on the near and far term. We will be looking into whether our situation is like Japan’s and what the implications might be. The large budget shortfalls and increased deficits have prompted many to ask if we are experiencing the beginnings of a Great Depression now, as some are claiming. The answer to that one is a "no, we are not." But seeds are being sown, and we will discuss why it is not a crisis for today.
2. It is natural to think that there could be changes in the tax code as a result of a change in the political situation in Washington. We will be looking at previous tax increases on corporations and on individuals in the context of what a near-term tax hike might or might not do to the US economy, and our forecasts, for 2021 and 2022.
3. The Federal Reserve Board has stepped in to keep credit markets working and to get money to businesses. The Main Street initiative alone promises to exceed $2 trillion. A lot of fiat currency is being created. Together we will look at what the implications are for future inflation. It has been a long time since we had systemic inflation in the US. Many feel that it has been beaten down and will not return, and they point to Japan as proof. Japan has indeed been inflation-free for many years, but that does not mean that will be the case here in the US. Fiat currency, plus wage inflation and raw material escalation as the world ramps up to near-full capacity in the future, could combine to create future inflationary pressures. It seems from the discussions we hear that many will be unprepared, and that could easily lead to significant issues for businesses.

These uncharted waters are indeed vexing for many and a challenge for all. Join us June 23 for our upcoming webinar as we take on these issues and discuss what we need to prepare for in terms of our businesses and our families.

Alan Beaulieu
President