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US Debt-to-GDP Ratio Worsening on Both Fronts

The level of US federal debt will roughly equal the size of the entire US economy in FY2020, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). In an ...
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Government Stimulus and Deficit Spending in Three Charts

The US government allocated trillions of dollars in stimulus spending to prop up the economy and mitigate the impact of this black swan-driven recession. Ongoing negotiations ...
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Second-Quarter Tax Data Suggests Pain on the Way for Public Sector Construction

The US and global economy found itself thrown into the abyss in March and April, navigating shutdowns, shelter-in-place orders, and overall economic devastation. Now, the US ...
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The 'Stakes in the Ground' for Economic Recovery

Despite the recent announcement of an abysmal US GDP number for the second quarter, which saw the three-month moving average for this broad-based measure of economic activity ...
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Leading Indicators Hanging on Despite Second Wave

The US has been battling a resurgent wave of COVID-19 cases since mid-June. While this situation constitutes a downside risk to our forecast for the US economy at large, we ...
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Learning Recession Lessons with the Fed

Since the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global recession, the US Federal Reserve has been quite active in its attempt to support markets and the economy. Beginning with an ...
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